STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 12/28
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••• DELAY OF GAME! •••
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A nasty snow storm hit the East Coast Sunday, forcing the NFL powers to postpone Sunday night's game between the Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles to Tuesday. Those extra days off may be enough to get Vikings veteran quarterback Brett Favre back on the field. Favre suffered a concussion last Monday against the Chicago Bears after making a surprise return under center despite an injured shoulder.
The Eagles clinched the NFC East title with the New York Giants' loss Sunday but have a shot at the No. 2 seed in the NFC if they continue to win. With the postponement of Sunday night's contest, sportsbooks took this game of the board. However, once the odds were back up, action came in on the Vikings, dropping the two-touchdown spread to 13.5. The total has also moved drastically, going from an opening post of 38 points to as high as 41 - a half a point below the original number this week.
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*** TUESDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL ***
MINNESOTA (5-9) @ PHILADELPHIA (10-4)
Lincoln Financial Field Philadelphia, PA
Kickoff: 8:00 p.m. EDT Line: Eagles -13.5 O/U 40
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The emotion of joy probably wouldn't feel so good had it not been for pain. The mental state of Philadelphia Eagles fans was a mix of both when franchise quarterback Donovan McNabb was traded on Easter Sunday. Several pundits had the Eagles tabbed to finish near the bottom of the NFC East when head coach Andy Reid pulled the trigger on the blockbuster deal that sent McNabb to Washington and opened the door for Kevin Kolb to be the team's starting quarterback.
Open doors eventually close, however, and it slammed shut on Kolb. The NFC East-champion Eagles are now Michael Vick's team, and the former incarcerated star has helped give Reid his sixth division title since taking over in 1999. The Eagles locked up the division crown when the Giants lost in Green Bay Sunday. The Eagles will take on the Minnesota Vikings for a rare Tuesday night game at Lincoln Financial Field. The game was supposed to take place on Sunday night, but a snowstorm forced the game to be postponed.
Vick and the Eagles are coming off an improbable road win over the New York Giants, scoring 28 points in less than eight minutes to go in the game for a 38-31 victory. Vick earned NFC Player of the Week honors by accounting for three touchdowns, two of which were through the air, 242 passing yards and 130 yards rushing. The dynamic MVP candidate has captured the conference honor three times this season and understands the ramifications of the game against the Vikings. The Eagles still have a chance at a first-round bye in the playoffs.
"We know the magnitude of this game and what's at stake, and we have to go out and get it," Vick said. "Nothing is going to be given to you; everything has to be earned. We just have to continue to move forward. This is just one stepping stone, with plenty more hurdles to cross." Philadelphia will be searching for its fourth straight win and seventh in eight weeks, and has won 10 or more games in back-to-back seasons for the first time since turning the trick from 2000-2004.
Already assured of their first losing season since the 2006 campaign, the Vikings' role has been relegated to spoiler. Minnesota has dropped two straight, four of six and six of its last nine games, including an embarrassing 40-14 defeat at the hands of the NFC North- rival Chicago Bears on Monday night. Besides having the game relocated to the University of Minnesota's outdoor TCF Bank Stadium after the Metrodome's roof collapsed the previous week following a heavy snowfall, the Vikings got a surprise return of quarterback Brett Favre, who shook off an injured shoulder to make the start.
Favre's heroics were short-lived, however, as he was knocked out of the game in the second quarter after sustaining a concussion on a sack. With backup Tarvaris Jackson already on injured reserve, the Vikings could be forced to turn to rookie Joe Webb for his first NFL start, though completely ruling out Favre is always a quandary. Webb came on in relief of Favre against the Bears and threw for 129 yards with no touchdown passes and a pair of interceptions for the Vikings, who have been outscored by a 61-17 margin in their last two games.
"My stubbornness, hardheadedness and stupidity at times has enabled me to play for 20 years and play the way I've played," the 41-year-old Favre said after the game. "It's just the way I've always approached it, the way I play. I wouldn't trade it for anything." Vikings interim head coach Leslie Frazier has stood by the future Hall of Famer and said things could change if Favre is cleared by the doctors. Under the rules of the NFL, a player who suffers a head injury must undergo post- concussion testing on a daily basis until proving there are no symptoms.
Minnesota running back Adrian Peterson also has to show that he is ready to return from a leg issue after he missed the Chicago game. The NFC's second- leading rusher will not be put at risk if he's unable to go at 100 percent, according to Frazier. Peterson suffered the injury against the Giants on Dec. 13 and is listed as questionable for this game. Rookie Toby Gerhart would handle backfield duties again if the former University of Oklahoma star is unable to go. The Vikings could use their top offensive weapon, since they haven't won in Philadelphia since 1985.
• SERIES HISTORY
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Minnesota holds an 11-9 edge in its all-time regular-season series with Philadelphia, but the Eagles have won three straight and six of the last seven meetings in the set. The clubs last squared off in a non-playoff setting in 2007, a 23-16 Philadelphia triumph at the Metrodome, and the Vikings were 41-17 losers in their most recent regular-season trip to the City of Brotherly Love, which took place at Veterans Stadium in 2001.
The last matchup between the teams occurred in the 2008 NFC Wild Card Playoffs, with the Eagles besting the North Division-champion Vikings by a 26-14 count. Philadelphia also prevailed in two other postseason bouts against Minnesota, scoring a 31-16 win at home in a 1980 Divisional Playoff and a 27-14 verdict at Lincoln Financial Field in the 2004 Divisional Round.
Counting the postseason, the Vikings have lost six consecutive times in Philadelphia since a 28-23 victory on Dec. 1, 1985. Minnesota's last win of any kind over the Eagles was a 28-19 home decision on Sept, 28, 1997. Reid has never lost in five lifetime encounters with Minnesota. Frazier, who served four seasons under Reid as the Eagles' defensive backs coach from 1999-2002, will be opposing both his former boss and one-time employers for the first time as a head coach.
• WHEN THE VIKINGS HAVE THE BALL
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It seems the Vikings will most likely settle with Webb for this road bout, and the rookie out of UAB has appeared in only two games this season. Webb (137 passing yards, 2 INT) first saw action in Week 14 setback to the Giants and completed 2-of-5 passes for eight yards. He then played an extended amount of time Monday night in frigid conditions, passing for 129 yards and completing 15 of his 26 attempts with two interceptions. Webb's also rushed for 54 yards this season and compiled 38 yards and a score on six scrambles last week. Recently-signed quarterback Patrick Ramsey is expected to back up Webb for the rest of the season if Favre is unable to play in either of the final two games.
It's been a tumultuous season for the Vikings, who have also been ravaged by injuries to key players such as wide receivers Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin, Favre and now Peterson. The in-season firing of head coach Brad Childress may have soothed some of the players' minds, but it still represents turmoil within an organization, especially for a team is coming off an NFC Championship Game appearance in 2009. Gerhart (304 rushing yards, 1 TD) led the ground attack with 77 yards on 16 carries against the Bears, while Peterson (1,149 rushing yards, 11 TD) needs 151 yards to join Earl Campbell as the only players to rush for 1,300-plus yards and 10 touchdowns in each of their first four NFL seasons.
Philadelphia has been able to handle the run lately and will still prepare for Peterson, since his true status is unknown. Gerhart is a beast of a man much like the Giants' Brandon Jacobs, but the Eagles limited New York's power back to 34 yards on 12 carries. Eagles rookie middle linebacker Jamar Chaney (35 tackles) made his first NFL start at the New Meadowlands Stadium last week and finished with a game-best 16 tackles and a forced fumble. Chaney did a fine job calling the signals in place of injured starter Stewart Bradley, who's unlikely to return with a dislocated elbow.
Speaking of not returning, Eagles rookie and starting safety Nate Allen (48 tackles, 2 sacks, 3 INT) is done for the year after suffering a knee injury on Sunday. He already underwent successful surgery to repair his ruptured right patella tendon, but has been placed on injured reserve. Fellow rookie Kurt Coleman (29 tackles, 1 INT) has some big shoes to fill and will take over Allen's spot. Coleman had four tackles and a pass defended against the Giants, but has to be wary of Vikings all-purpose receiver Harvin. Cornerback Asante Samuel (25 tackles) owns seven interceptions this season and returned from a three-game absence due to a knee injury last week, posting two tackles. The Eagles have forced a total of 11 turnovers in their last four victories.
• WHEN THE EAGLES HAVE THE BALL
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Philadelphia's explosive offense is one of the best in the NFL this season and has scored at least 26 points in each of the past seven games, averaging 34.3 points per contest over that stretch. The Eagles have been able to turn it on down the stretch, right about the time Vick took over for good under center. They averaged 372.6 yards per game over the first seven contests of the season, but have posted 435.3 yards per week in the last seven. Philadelphia has been able to rally from fourth-quarter deficits four times since mid-November and has outscored the opposition by a 66-21 count in the final stanza in that time. Vick (2.755 passing yards, 20 TD, 5 INT) is a main reason for that, as he's accounted for nine touchdown passes and three rushing scores in his last four games.
The left-hander out of Virginia Tech, who owns eight rushing scores in 2010, has thrown for two or more touchdown passes in a game seven times this season and is the NFC's top passer with a 103.6 rating. Philly's receiving corps is led by DeSean Jackson (45 receptions, 1,024 yards, 6 TD) and Jeremy Maclin (64 receptions, 890 yards, 10 TD). Jackson was the hero in the miracle win over New York with a game-ending punt return for a score and is a home-run threat nearly every play. Maclin had two touchdown catches last week. Running back LeSean McCoy (1,036 rushing yards, 7 TD) leads the Eagles with 74 catches and is averaging 5.3 yards per carry as well. McCoy hasn't scored in the last two games, however.
The Vikings have given up 61 points in their last two games and are in for a long evening if they fail to stop Philadelphia's potent offense. They have to be prepared for Vick, who can kill defenses with both his legs and cannon of an arm. Minnesota will most likely drop some players back in coverage and make sure Vick has no running lanes around the ends. End Jared Allen (52 tackles, 10 sacks) will be up for the challenge and has 8 1/2 sacks in his last seven games. Ray Edwards (28 tackles, 7 sacks) plays on the opposite side of Allen and returned from injury to post a sack against the Bears.
Minnesota is eighth in rushing yards allowed this season (101.5 ypg) and still has veteran tackles Kevin Williams and Pat Williams plugging the lanes. The two mammoth defenders could easily make it difficult for Vick and McCoy to find running room inside, though Bears running back Matt Forte posted 92 yards on 17 carries in Monday's win. The Vikings played tough pass defense that game and held Jay Cutler to 194 yards, but he also had three touchdown strikes to go along with an interception. Cornerback Asher Allen (50 tackles, 2 INT) has posted his first two picks of the season in each of the last two games for Minnesota's 10th-rated pass defense. Safety Madieu Williams (75 tackles, 1 INT) suffered a concussion last week and is questionable.
• PREGAME NOTES
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While the Eagles are in the middle of a division sandwich, it’s not the flat spot that one would expect. Philly is 13-2-1 ATS at home after battling the Giants and 12-2 ATS in non-division games before dealing with the Cowboys. WTF, you say! Well our Stat/Systems Sports database offers this little piece of advice: Game Fifteen road teams with a season-ending road game on deck are 20-5 ATS when playing off back-to-back SU losses. We also dug a little deeper and found that the Eagles are just 2-8 ATS as favorites of more than 7 points off back-to-back wins while HC Andy Reid is 1-6 ATS as a favorite of 8 or more points in the final quarter of the season.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Philadelphia by 11.5; O/U 47.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Philadelphia -15
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Philadelphia -11.98
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--PHILADELPHIA is 31-15 ATS (+14.5 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 27.3, OPPONENT 19.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--MINNESOTA is 25-42 ATS (-21.2 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1992.
The average score was MINNESOTA 21.4, OPPONENT 25.9 - (Rating = 4*)
--MINNESOTA is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 13.0, OPPONENT 27.3 - (Rating = 4*)
--MINNESOTA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 11.8, OPPONENT 29.3 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--PHILADELPHIA is 7-1 OVER (+5.9 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse this season.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 29.8, OPPONENT 24.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--MINNESOTA is 41-23 OVER (+15.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
The average score was MINNESOTA 21.3, OPPONENT 26.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--MINNESOTA is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) in road games vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 27 or more points/game in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was MINNESOTA 26.4, OPPONENT 33.5 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--PHILADELPHIA is 50-28 against the 1rst half line (+19.2 Units) in December games since 1992.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 12.3, OPPONENT 9.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--PHILADELPHIA is 42-21 against the 1rst half line (+18.9 Units) after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game since 1992.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 11.2, OPPONENT 8.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--PHILADELPHIA is 52-32 against the 1rst half line (+16.8 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return since 1992.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 11.4, OPPONENT 9.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--MINNESOTA is 0-7 against the 1rst half line (-7.7 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 7.3, OPPONENT 11.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--MINNESOTA is 0-6 against the 1rst half line (-6.6 Units) in road games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 6.2, OPPONENT 13.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--MINNESOTA is 0-6 against the 1rst half line (-6.6 Units) after scoring 14 points or less last game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 5.2, OPPONENT 12.3 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--PHILADELPHIA is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total in home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 17.7, OPPONENT 9.1 - (Rating = 4*)
--PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) the 1rst half total in a home game where the first half total is between 19.5 and 21 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 19.9, OPPONENT 6.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--MINNESOTA is 45-24 OVER (+18.4 Units) the 1rst half total in a road game where the first half total is between 18 and 21 since 1992.
The average score was MINNESOTA 10.7, OPPONENT 12.4 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY OVER - Any team against the total (PHILADELPHIA) - after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after 2 straight losses by 10 or more points.
(31-9 over the last 10 seasons.) (77.5%, +21.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 43.3
The average score in these games was: Team 25.7, Opponent 25.1 (Total points scored = 50.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 22 (55% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-5).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (14-5).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (56-40).
--PLAY OVER - Any team vs the 1rst half total (PHILADELPHIA) - after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(39-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.5%, +25.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 21.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 12.5, Opponent 12.6 (Total first half points scored = 25.1)
The situation's record this season is: (6-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-7).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (65-62).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (128-123).
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*** CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL ***
NC STATE (8-4) VS. W VIRGINIA (9-3)
Citrus Bowl Stadium - Orlando, FL
Kickoff: 6:30 p.m. EDT Line: W Virginia -2.5 O/U 48.5
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The 2010 Champs Sports Bowl in Orlando will feature the West Virginia Mountaineers of the Big East facing off against the NC State Wolfpack out of the ACC. The Mountaineers earned a share of the Big East title this season, but lost out on the tie breaker with UConn. Instead of representing the league in a BCS Bowl game, WVU finds itself in the Champs Sports Bowl for the first time. "We are thrilled and excited to be a participant and we are very much looking forward to this opportunity," said West Virginia coach Bill Stewart.
WVU, which won its last four games of the regular season, is making its school-record ninth straight bowl appearance. The Mountaineers own a 13-16 all-time mark in bowl games and had won four consecutive before losing to Florida State in the Gator Bowl last season. As for NC State, it suffered a 38-31 loss to Maryland in its regular-season finale that cost the team the Atlantic Division title and a spot in the ACC Championship game. It was certainly a disappointing and costly defeat, but the Wolfpack are still headed to a bowl game for the second time in four years under head coach Tom O'Brien.
"Our team could not be more excited about the opportunity to play in the Champs Sports Bowl," O'Brien said. "A trip to Orlando is a great reward for their hard work this season and we are happy to have a quality opponent like West Virginia. We hope that our fans will paint the town red." This is the 25th bowl appearance for NC State, which owns a 12-11-1 mark in such games. The program's last postseason appearance came in 2008, a 29-23 loss to Rutgers.
The Mountaineers and Wolfpack have met nine times previously on the gridiron, including twice in the postseason, and WVU holds a 5-4 edge in the series. The programs met twice in the Peach Bowl in Atlanta, with NC State posting a 49-13 win in 1972 and WVU capturing a 13-10 decision in 1975. WVU's offense came alive down the stretch, scoring 35 or more points in three of its final four games and cracking 500 total yards for the first time in a finale win over Rutgers. Turnovers however, have been an issue for the Mountaineers, as they have committed 23, including 16 lost fumbles.
Running the offense for WVU is sophomore Geno Smith, who really grew as the season wore on. Smith, in his first season as a starter, completed 65.8 percent of his pass attempts with 23 TDs against just six INTs. Jock Sanders served as Smith's safety outlet with a team-high 64 catches, while Tavon Austin provided a deep threat with 757 receiving yards and eight TDs. The Mountaineers also have a threat in the backfield with Noel Devine, though his season was slowed by ankle and foot issues. The speedy back totaled just 884 yards after entering the season as a possible Heisman Trophy candidate. With plenty of time to rest for this game, expect Devine to be ready to make an impact.
Defensively, the Mountaineers have been outstanding for the most part this season and they rank second in both run (85.1 ypg) and scoring (12.8 ppg) defense. The pass defense has also been strong for WVU, allowing just 166.2 ypg to rank 11th in the country. WVU never gave up over 21 points and the 15 TDs it surrendered were the fewest in the entire nation. The unit even had success creating big plays, recording 22 takeaways and 40 sacks. Bruce Irvin leads the team in sacks with 12, while Julian Miller adds eight to go with a team-high 13 TFLs. Keith Tandy is another player to keep a look out for, as the ball-hawk leads the team with six INTs.
The Wolfpack's offense revolves around Russell Wilson, who is one of the most talented QBs around with a strong arm and mobility. Wilson has thrown for 3,288 yards and 26 TDs, while adding 394 more yards and nine scores on the ground. He, however, does lack some accuracy, completing 58.1 percent of his pass attempts with 14 INTs along the way. Owen Spencer is Wilson's favorite target in the passing game, as he leads the roster with 57 catches and 868 receiving yards. Jarvin Williams is another option and he ranks second behind 46 receptions for 636 yards. The ground game is churning out a modest 125.0 ypg even with the help of Wilson. Mustafa Greene is the team's leading rusher, but he has amassed only 584 yards on the season. So expect the passing game to take center stage as always for this unit.
NC State has been strong against the run this season, as the unit is permitting just 113.0 ypg on the ground. The unit has done a terrific job stopping plays in the backfield, averaging nearly eight TFLs per game. The strong play up front has also helped NC State record 40 sacks, though the pass defense has still struggled some despite the heavy pressure. The Wolfpack are giving up 227.5 ypg through the air with 20 TDs against only eight INTs. Nate Irving, who missed all of 2009 after sustaining injuries in a car accident, has been outstanding for NC State this season and ranks in the top five nationally with 20.5 TFLs. He also leads the team with six sacks, while ranking second with 88 tackles.
"One of the most rewarding things I've experienced as a coach has been seeing Nate Irving come back so strong and enjoy so much success," said O'Brien. "He has been a tremendous leader for our team this year with his play on the field and his attitude off the field and is one of the reasons the 2010 team will always be a special one for me."
• PREGAME NOTES
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The Mountaineers and their 9-3 SU and 7-3-1 ATS record may warrant favorite status tonight in Orlando but the way we see it, the linesmakers are playing with fire. Not only is HC Bill Stewart an unreliable 11-17-1 ATS when laying points but the West Virginians are a money-burning 0-6 ATS as bowl favorites since 1980. To make matters worse, they’re now laying points to a Wolf Pack squad that came within a 4th-quarter collapse (Virginia Tech) of posting a perfect 6-0 ATS mark this season when taking points.
The ‘conference’ matchup also favors the Pack as ACC bowlers are 14-4 ATS versus Big East opposition while the Mountaineers are just 12-30 ATS versus ACC foes. And when we bring the coaches into play, this one gets completely out of hand. NC State’s Tom O’Brien has excelled in bowl games, posting a 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS record. The veteran head coach is also a determined 15-5 ATS off a SU loss when taking on an opponent off back-to-back SU wins. Certainly, the same could not be said for Coach Stewart, who is being forced out of Morgantown after the 2011 season.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - W Virginia by 2; O/U 45.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - W Virginia -3
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - W Virginia -2.01
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--W VIRGINIA is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival since 1992.
The average score was W VIRGINIA 31.4, OPPONENT 17.0 - (Rating = 2*)
--NC STATE is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NC STATE 27.7, OPPONENT 26.0 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--W VIRGINIA is 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) after playing a game at home this season.
The average score was W VIRGINIA 17.0, OPPONENT 15.3 - (Rating = 2*)
--NC STATE is 10-2 UNDER (+7.8 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=310 yards/game since 1992.
The average score was NC STATE 20.9, OPPONENT 29.8 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--NC STATE is 19-34 against the 1rst half line (-18.4 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
The average score was NC STATE 11.5, OPPONENT 12.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--NC STATE is 16-31 against the 1rst half line (-18.1 Units) when the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 since 1992.
The average score was NC STATE 12.4, OPPONENT 14.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--NC STATE is 11-25 against the 1rst half line (-16.5 Units) vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better since 1992.
The average score was NC STATE 12.5, OPPONENT 17.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--NC STATE is 1-9 against the 1rst half line (-8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NC STATE 12.3, OPPONENT 19.5 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--W VIRGINIA is 16-6 UNDER (+9.4 Units) the 1rst half total in road games after a win by 21 or more points since 1992.
The average score was W VIRGINIA 14.3, OPPONENT 11.1 - (Rating = 2*)
--W VIRGINIA is 16-6 UNDER (+9.4 Units) the 1rst half total after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992.
The average score was W VIRGINIA 13.4, OPPONENT 9.0 - (Rating = 2*)
--W VIRGINIA is 13-4 UNDER (+8.6 Units) the 1rst half total in road games after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games since 1992.
The average score was W VIRGINIA 12.2, OPPONENT 9.4 - (Rating = 2*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the first half total is 21.5 to 24.5 (NC STATE) - off an upset loss as a favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%).
(43-11 over the last 10 seasons.) (79.6%, +30.9 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 23.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 9.3, Opponent 10 (Total first half points scored = 19.4)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (24-5).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (53-19).
--PLAY UNDER - Neutral field teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (W VIRGINIA) - average rushing team (140-190 RY/G) against a good rushing defense (100-140 RY/G) after 7+ games.
(26-7 over the last 10 seasons.) (78.8%, +18.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 46.1
The average score in these games was: Team 19.1, Opponent 21.8 (Total points scored = 40.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 17 (51.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-4).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (41-21).
--PLAY AGAINST - Any team where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (NC STATE) - in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences, after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more.
(47-14 since 1992.) (77.0%, +31.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 16, Opponent 11.1 (Average first half point differential = +4.9)
The situation's record this season is: (5-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (22-6).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (28-9).
--PLAY AGAINST - Any team (NC STATE) - good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG) against an excellent defense (<=280 YPG) after 7+ games.
(49-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.1%, +29.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (53-18 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 5.5
The average score in these games was: Team 29.5, Opponent 20.1 (Average point differential = +9.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 24 (34.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (6-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (29-10).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (77-46).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (127-107).
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Stan Knows Football and Basketball! Check out the huge winning run “The Man is enjoying and prepare to get all of his football and basketball selections with a discounted monthly or seasonal package.” Do it now and Save Big! - Call me toll-free in the office @ 1-800-351-4640 - You'll be real glad you did" -Stan!
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*** INSIGHT BOWL ***
MISSOURI (10-2) VS. IOWA (7-5)
Sun Devil Stadium - Tempe, AZ
Kickoff: 10:00 p.m. EDT Line: Missouri -3 O/U 46.5
------------------------------------------------------------
The Missouri Tigers and Iowa Hawkeyes got toe-to-toe in the 2010 Insight Bowl at Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe. Aside from back-to-back losses, the Tigers have been perfect, winning 10 games and earning a share of the Big 12 North Division title for the third time in the last four seasons. With the successful run during the regular-season, Missouri earned itself a school-record sixth straight bowl game. "We're very pleased to accept the invitation to play in the 2010 Insight Bowl," said MU Head Coach Gary Pinkel. "This is going to be a great reward for our team, and for our fans."
Overall this is the Tigers' 28th all-time bowl appearance and the program is 12-15 in such games, including three straight wins. Missouri has made one other appearance in the Insight Bowl, defeating West Virginia 34-31 in 1998. Iowa meanwhile, was ranked in the Top 10 this year, but now finds itself unranked heading into the bowl season. The Hawkeyes ended the regular season with three consecutive losses, all by four points or less, costing the program a chance at the Big Ten title. Still, Iowa did enough to earn a place in a bowl game for a third straight season and 25th time overall. The Hawkeyes own a 13-10-1 all-time record in the postseason, including a 24-14 win over Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl last season.
Missouri possesses a solid offense that is averaging 30.3 ppg and 401.1 total ypg. The Tigers are balanced as well, rushing for 162.9 ypg and throwing for 238.2 ypg more, with 26 scores coming on the ground and 16 through the air. QB Blaine Gabbert makes this offense go and he has completed 62.2 percent of his pass attempts for 2,752 yards, with 15 TDs against seven INTs. He can also get the job done with his legs, rushing for 239 yards and four scores. At Gabbert's disposal is a pair of talented outlets in TE Michael Egnew and WR T.J. Moe. Egnew leads the team in catches (83) to go with 698 yards and four scores, while Moe has 77 receptions for 893 yard sand six TDs. In the backfield, the Tigers don't have a single rusher that has topped 500 yards yet, though the team is averaging a solid 4.8 yards per carry.
Defensively, the Tigers turned in some dominant performances this season, holding five separate opponents under 10 points, including two shutouts. Overall, Missouri is allowing just 15.2 ppg, so this unit obviously does a terrific job keeping foes out of the end zone. While the Tigers have been tough on defense, they have given up some yards, surrendering 350.7 total ypg. The unit though, has compensated by forcing 27 turnovers, including 16 INTs, and recording 38 sacks. Brad Madison has started just two games for the Tigers, but that hasn't stopped him from leading the team with 11.0 TFLs and 7.5 sacks. Aldon Smith has also been effective despite missing three games, as he posted 44 tackles, nine TFLs and 5.5 sacks.
Iowa's strength on offense comes from its ability to protect the ball, committing a total of just nine turnovers. It all starts with QB Ricky Stanzi, who has thrown a total of just four INTs in 324 attempts. A winner through his career, Stanzi has enjoyed a highly successful campaign, completing 64.8 percent of his tosses for 2,804 yards and 25 TDs. "I think he's had a great year," Kirk Ferentz said. "He's had a great career. Rick is a tremendous individual that works very hard. His statistics are impressive because he's played pretty impressively."
Stanzi however, won't have the services of Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, who has been suspended following a drug-related arrest. Johnson-Koulianos had 745 receiving yards and a team-high 10 TDs during the regular season, so he will obviously be missed. Marvin McNutt though, will be available and he leads the team in catches (51) and receiving yards (798), to go with eight scores. The Hawkeyes issued another suspension to a key player for this game in Adam Robinson, who led the team with 941 yards and 10 TDs on the ground in 10 games. True freshman Marcus Coker made three starts and ran for 403 yards during the regular season and he will get the chance to showcase his talent on a big stage with Robinson out of the way.
"You can expect him to run the ball physically and run it tough, which he likes to do," offensive coordinator Ken O'Keefe said about Coker. "This is an opponent that's going to offer some different challenges to him and one of them is going to be in the blitz pickup game. We really like the progress Marcus has made." On the defensive side of the ball, Iowa has excelled this season, holding opponents to only 164. ppg and 317.1 total ypg. The unit has been stout versus the run, yielding just 103.5 ypg and only 3.3 yards per carry. Iowa has also had success coming up with takeaways, registering 23 on the year. A majority of the turnovers have come via picks, as the Hawkeyes have notched 17 INTs compared to 11 passing TDs allowed. Shaun Prater and Brett Greenwood are tied for the team-lead in INTs with four, while Micah Hyde follows with three picks.
• PREGAME NOTES
-------------------------
QB Ricky Stanzi had been 18-4 SU as a starter with the Hawkeyes entering 2010, only to go 7-5 in his final season at Iowa City. Meanwhile, coming off an 8-5 mark last year, Missouri wasn’t expected to make major noise in the Big 12 but Gary Pinkel’s Tigers opened the season 7-0 before closing out with a 10-2 finish. But here’s where we break with tradition, preferring to think of Iowa’s travails resulting from bad luck instead of bad play. This year’s lined opponents finished with a W-L record of 80-42, the most difficult of all bowlers, and the Hawkeyes’ last 11 losses over the previous three seasons have come by just 39 points combined, with no defeat by more than seven points.
Yes, Mizzou’s senior class may graduate as the winningest in school history but the Tigers still laid a massive egg in last year’s Texas Bowl, losing 35-13 as 6.5-point favorites against Navy. Rival coach Kirk Ferentz owns a 15-7 ATS mark as a dog or favorite of less than 10 points off consecutive losses while Pinkel has gone 0-3 ATS versus .500 or better Big Ten opponents. Even more encouraging for Hawkeye backers, Iowa is 8-1 ATS off three SU losses an own a 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS record as bowl dogs, and Big 10 bowlers are 7-1 ATS taking on Big 12 adversaries off a double-digit win. On the down side, Big 12 bowlers are an abysmal 0-7 ATS as favorites off a win of 8 or more points and 4-12 ATS versus bowlers over the last three years.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Missouri by 3; O/U 41.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Missouri -1
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Missouri -2.22
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--IOWA is 30-11 ATS (+17.9 Units) versus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.75 rushing yards/carry since 1992.
The average score was IOWA 29.9, OPPONENT 22.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--IOWA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was IOWA 25.8, OPPONENT 14.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--IOWA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was IOWA 23.3, OPPONENT 17.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--MISSOURI is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.9 yards/play over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MISSOURI 29.3, OPPONENT 33.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--MISSOURI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MISSOURI 25.3, OPPONENT 34.4 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
----------------------------------------------------
--IOWA is 41-22 UNDER (+16.8 Units) when the total is between 42.5 and 49 since 1992.
The average score was IOWA 21.9, OPPONENT 19.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--IOWA is 31-13 UNDER (+16.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
The average score was IOWA 19.6, OPPONENT 23.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--IOWA is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was IOWA 23.1, OPPONENT 15.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--MISSOURI is 18-3 UNDER (+14.7 Units) after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better since 1992.
The average score was MISSOURI 25.2, OPPONENT 24.4 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--IOWA is 8-0 against the 1rst half line (+8.0 Units) vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was IOWA 14.4, OPPONENT 7.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--IOWA is 7-0 against the 1rst half line (+7.0 Units) as a neutral field underdog of 3.5 points or less since 1992.
The average score was IOWA 15.1, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--MISSOURI is 62-39 against the 1rst half line (+19.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
The average score was MISSOURI 13.1, OPPONENT 14.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--MISSOURI is 37-18 against the 1rst half line (+16.9 Units) versus good rushing defenses - allowing <=120 rushing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was MISSOURI 11.5, OPPONENT 14.5 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
------------------------------------------------------------------
--IOWA is 39-20 UNDER (+17.0 Units) the 1rst half total as an underdog vs. the 1rst half line since 1992.
The average score was IOWA 8.3, OPPONENT 14.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--IOWA is 10-0 UNDER (+10.0 Units) the 1rst half total in road games off an upset loss as a favorite since 1992.
The average score was IOWA 7.7, OPPONENT 11.2 - (Rating = 4*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATION
---------------------------------------------
--PLAY UNDER - Neutral field teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (MISSOURI) - average rushing team (140-190 RY/G) against a good rushing defense (100-140 RY/G) after 7+ games.
(26-7 over the last 10 seasons.) (78.8%, +18.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 46.1
The average score in these games was: Team 19.1, Opponent 21.8 (Total points scored = 40.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 17 (51.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-4).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (41-21).
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Stan 'The Man has Turned-Up the Heat on the Gridiron with his RED~HOT 69-25-4, (73.4%) ATS Run, along with his impressive 132-56-2 (70.2%) mark for the season, in MLB action! But most Importantly, Yours Truly has delivered the cash in Forty-Two of the last Forty-Six, and in Seventy-Six of the last Eighty-One Weeks, Dating back to Last Season!
After taking most of the week off, “The Man Continued to Roll with his 'ROCK~SOLID' Record (40-13-2, 75.5%) in CFB Action on Friday, dishing out yet another Huge Top *5-Star Winner (Tulsa +10.5) that was back by this ‘Incredible Super Situational System' - PLAY ON: A Conference Championship/Bowl team (not a favorite of 4+ points or underdog of more than 14 points) off allowing 22+ points in each of its last 5 games vs. a non-Independent opponent.
This Stat/Systems Sports Super Situational System has a record of 17-0 ATS, 100% (with the Tulsa Golden Hurricane forcing six turnovers to upend #24 Hawaii, 62-35, in the Hawaii Bowl) covering the spread by an average of 27.4 points per game since 1999. The straight up record for this system is a solid 14-3 winning by an average of 17.3 points per game.
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Each day here in our Stat/Systems Report we will list the Top - Angles, Stats and Situational Trends for up-coming games, including all the Key - ATS, Over/Unders, Money-Line, First Half ATS Top Trends including Over/Unders, Coaches ATS & Over/Unders and Teaser Line Trends, along with all your high percentage Super Situation Systems.
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••• DELAY OF GAME! •••
--------------------------------
A nasty snow storm hit the East Coast Sunday, forcing the NFL powers to postpone Sunday night's game between the Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles to Tuesday. Those extra days off may be enough to get Vikings veteran quarterback Brett Favre back on the field. Favre suffered a concussion last Monday against the Chicago Bears after making a surprise return under center despite an injured shoulder.
The Eagles clinched the NFC East title with the New York Giants' loss Sunday but have a shot at the No. 2 seed in the NFC if they continue to win. With the postponement of Sunday night's contest, sportsbooks took this game of the board. However, once the odds were back up, action came in on the Vikings, dropping the two-touchdown spread to 13.5. The total has also moved drastically, going from an opening post of 38 points to as high as 41 - a half a point below the original number this week.
Make Sure you have the Advantage you need to win this Season! Did you know that the Stat/Systems Report is the #1 rated sports betting publication in the country today. Offering complete analysis and predictions for every game on the board including game logs, betting trends, key injuries, vital statistics, lines and odds, and more the daily publication is everything that you need to win each and every day!
“Who will cash at the betting window on Tuesday, be sure to get all your winners each day... "Where the Winning Never Stops right here @ Stat/Systems Sports!" Call me toll-free in the office @ 1-800-351-4640 "You'll be real glad you did" -Stan!
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*** TUESDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL ***
MINNESOTA (5-9) @ PHILADELPHIA (10-4)
Lincoln Financial Field Philadelphia, PA
Kickoff: 8:00 p.m. EDT Line: Eagles -13.5 O/U 40
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The emotion of joy probably wouldn't feel so good had it not been for pain. The mental state of Philadelphia Eagles fans was a mix of both when franchise quarterback Donovan McNabb was traded on Easter Sunday. Several pundits had the Eagles tabbed to finish near the bottom of the NFC East when head coach Andy Reid pulled the trigger on the blockbuster deal that sent McNabb to Washington and opened the door for Kevin Kolb to be the team's starting quarterback.
Open doors eventually close, however, and it slammed shut on Kolb. The NFC East-champion Eagles are now Michael Vick's team, and the former incarcerated star has helped give Reid his sixth division title since taking over in 1999. The Eagles locked up the division crown when the Giants lost in Green Bay Sunday. The Eagles will take on the Minnesota Vikings for a rare Tuesday night game at Lincoln Financial Field. The game was supposed to take place on Sunday night, but a snowstorm forced the game to be postponed.
Vick and the Eagles are coming off an improbable road win over the New York Giants, scoring 28 points in less than eight minutes to go in the game for a 38-31 victory. Vick earned NFC Player of the Week honors by accounting for three touchdowns, two of which were through the air, 242 passing yards and 130 yards rushing. The dynamic MVP candidate has captured the conference honor three times this season and understands the ramifications of the game against the Vikings. The Eagles still have a chance at a first-round bye in the playoffs.
"We know the magnitude of this game and what's at stake, and we have to go out and get it," Vick said. "Nothing is going to be given to you; everything has to be earned. We just have to continue to move forward. This is just one stepping stone, with plenty more hurdles to cross." Philadelphia will be searching for its fourth straight win and seventh in eight weeks, and has won 10 or more games in back-to-back seasons for the first time since turning the trick from 2000-2004.
Already assured of their first losing season since the 2006 campaign, the Vikings' role has been relegated to spoiler. Minnesota has dropped two straight, four of six and six of its last nine games, including an embarrassing 40-14 defeat at the hands of the NFC North- rival Chicago Bears on Monday night. Besides having the game relocated to the University of Minnesota's outdoor TCF Bank Stadium after the Metrodome's roof collapsed the previous week following a heavy snowfall, the Vikings got a surprise return of quarterback Brett Favre, who shook off an injured shoulder to make the start.
Favre's heroics were short-lived, however, as he was knocked out of the game in the second quarter after sustaining a concussion on a sack. With backup Tarvaris Jackson already on injured reserve, the Vikings could be forced to turn to rookie Joe Webb for his first NFL start, though completely ruling out Favre is always a quandary. Webb came on in relief of Favre against the Bears and threw for 129 yards with no touchdown passes and a pair of interceptions for the Vikings, who have been outscored by a 61-17 margin in their last two games.
"My stubbornness, hardheadedness and stupidity at times has enabled me to play for 20 years and play the way I've played," the 41-year-old Favre said after the game. "It's just the way I've always approached it, the way I play. I wouldn't trade it for anything." Vikings interim head coach Leslie Frazier has stood by the future Hall of Famer and said things could change if Favre is cleared by the doctors. Under the rules of the NFL, a player who suffers a head injury must undergo post- concussion testing on a daily basis until proving there are no symptoms.
Minnesota running back Adrian Peterson also has to show that he is ready to return from a leg issue after he missed the Chicago game. The NFC's second- leading rusher will not be put at risk if he's unable to go at 100 percent, according to Frazier. Peterson suffered the injury against the Giants on Dec. 13 and is listed as questionable for this game. Rookie Toby Gerhart would handle backfield duties again if the former University of Oklahoma star is unable to go. The Vikings could use their top offensive weapon, since they haven't won in Philadelphia since 1985.
• SERIES HISTORY
---------------------
Minnesota holds an 11-9 edge in its all-time regular-season series with Philadelphia, but the Eagles have won three straight and six of the last seven meetings in the set. The clubs last squared off in a non-playoff setting in 2007, a 23-16 Philadelphia triumph at the Metrodome, and the Vikings were 41-17 losers in their most recent regular-season trip to the City of Brotherly Love, which took place at Veterans Stadium in 2001.
The last matchup between the teams occurred in the 2008 NFC Wild Card Playoffs, with the Eagles besting the North Division-champion Vikings by a 26-14 count. Philadelphia also prevailed in two other postseason bouts against Minnesota, scoring a 31-16 win at home in a 1980 Divisional Playoff and a 27-14 verdict at Lincoln Financial Field in the 2004 Divisional Round.
Counting the postseason, the Vikings have lost six consecutive times in Philadelphia since a 28-23 victory on Dec. 1, 1985. Minnesota's last win of any kind over the Eagles was a 28-19 home decision on Sept, 28, 1997. Reid has never lost in five lifetime encounters with Minnesota. Frazier, who served four seasons under Reid as the Eagles' defensive backs coach from 1999-2002, will be opposing both his former boss and one-time employers for the first time as a head coach.
• WHEN THE VIKINGS HAVE THE BALL
----------------------------------------------
It seems the Vikings will most likely settle with Webb for this road bout, and the rookie out of UAB has appeared in only two games this season. Webb (137 passing yards, 2 INT) first saw action in Week 14 setback to the Giants and completed 2-of-5 passes for eight yards. He then played an extended amount of time Monday night in frigid conditions, passing for 129 yards and completing 15 of his 26 attempts with two interceptions. Webb's also rushed for 54 yards this season and compiled 38 yards and a score on six scrambles last week. Recently-signed quarterback Patrick Ramsey is expected to back up Webb for the rest of the season if Favre is unable to play in either of the final two games.
It's been a tumultuous season for the Vikings, who have also been ravaged by injuries to key players such as wide receivers Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin, Favre and now Peterson. The in-season firing of head coach Brad Childress may have soothed some of the players' minds, but it still represents turmoil within an organization, especially for a team is coming off an NFC Championship Game appearance in 2009. Gerhart (304 rushing yards, 1 TD) led the ground attack with 77 yards on 16 carries against the Bears, while Peterson (1,149 rushing yards, 11 TD) needs 151 yards to join Earl Campbell as the only players to rush for 1,300-plus yards and 10 touchdowns in each of their first four NFL seasons.
Philadelphia has been able to handle the run lately and will still prepare for Peterson, since his true status is unknown. Gerhart is a beast of a man much like the Giants' Brandon Jacobs, but the Eagles limited New York's power back to 34 yards on 12 carries. Eagles rookie middle linebacker Jamar Chaney (35 tackles) made his first NFL start at the New Meadowlands Stadium last week and finished with a game-best 16 tackles and a forced fumble. Chaney did a fine job calling the signals in place of injured starter Stewart Bradley, who's unlikely to return with a dislocated elbow.
Speaking of not returning, Eagles rookie and starting safety Nate Allen (48 tackles, 2 sacks, 3 INT) is done for the year after suffering a knee injury on Sunday. He already underwent successful surgery to repair his ruptured right patella tendon, but has been placed on injured reserve. Fellow rookie Kurt Coleman (29 tackles, 1 INT) has some big shoes to fill and will take over Allen's spot. Coleman had four tackles and a pass defended against the Giants, but has to be wary of Vikings all-purpose receiver Harvin. Cornerback Asante Samuel (25 tackles) owns seven interceptions this season and returned from a three-game absence due to a knee injury last week, posting two tackles. The Eagles have forced a total of 11 turnovers in their last four victories.
• WHEN THE EAGLES HAVE THE BALL
---------------------------------------------
Philadelphia's explosive offense is one of the best in the NFL this season and has scored at least 26 points in each of the past seven games, averaging 34.3 points per contest over that stretch. The Eagles have been able to turn it on down the stretch, right about the time Vick took over for good under center. They averaged 372.6 yards per game over the first seven contests of the season, but have posted 435.3 yards per week in the last seven. Philadelphia has been able to rally from fourth-quarter deficits four times since mid-November and has outscored the opposition by a 66-21 count in the final stanza in that time. Vick (2.755 passing yards, 20 TD, 5 INT) is a main reason for that, as he's accounted for nine touchdown passes and three rushing scores in his last four games.
The left-hander out of Virginia Tech, who owns eight rushing scores in 2010, has thrown for two or more touchdown passes in a game seven times this season and is the NFC's top passer with a 103.6 rating. Philly's receiving corps is led by DeSean Jackson (45 receptions, 1,024 yards, 6 TD) and Jeremy Maclin (64 receptions, 890 yards, 10 TD). Jackson was the hero in the miracle win over New York with a game-ending punt return for a score and is a home-run threat nearly every play. Maclin had two touchdown catches last week. Running back LeSean McCoy (1,036 rushing yards, 7 TD) leads the Eagles with 74 catches and is averaging 5.3 yards per carry as well. McCoy hasn't scored in the last two games, however.
The Vikings have given up 61 points in their last two games and are in for a long evening if they fail to stop Philadelphia's potent offense. They have to be prepared for Vick, who can kill defenses with both his legs and cannon of an arm. Minnesota will most likely drop some players back in coverage and make sure Vick has no running lanes around the ends. End Jared Allen (52 tackles, 10 sacks) will be up for the challenge and has 8 1/2 sacks in his last seven games. Ray Edwards (28 tackles, 7 sacks) plays on the opposite side of Allen and returned from injury to post a sack against the Bears.
Minnesota is eighth in rushing yards allowed this season (101.5 ypg) and still has veteran tackles Kevin Williams and Pat Williams plugging the lanes. The two mammoth defenders could easily make it difficult for Vick and McCoy to find running room inside, though Bears running back Matt Forte posted 92 yards on 17 carries in Monday's win. The Vikings played tough pass defense that game and held Jay Cutler to 194 yards, but he also had three touchdown strikes to go along with an interception. Cornerback Asher Allen (50 tackles, 2 INT) has posted his first two picks of the season in each of the last two games for Minnesota's 10th-rated pass defense. Safety Madieu Williams (75 tackles, 1 INT) suffered a concussion last week and is questionable.
• PREGAME NOTES
-------------------------
While the Eagles are in the middle of a division sandwich, it’s not the flat spot that one would expect. Philly is 13-2-1 ATS at home after battling the Giants and 12-2 ATS in non-division games before dealing with the Cowboys. WTF, you say! Well our Stat/Systems Sports database offers this little piece of advice: Game Fifteen road teams with a season-ending road game on deck are 20-5 ATS when playing off back-to-back SU losses. We also dug a little deeper and found that the Eagles are just 2-8 ATS as favorites of more than 7 points off back-to-back wins while HC Andy Reid is 1-6 ATS as a favorite of 8 or more points in the final quarter of the season.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Philadelphia by 11.5; O/U 47.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Philadelphia -15
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Philadelphia -11.98
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--PHILADELPHIA is 31-15 ATS (+14.5 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 27.3, OPPONENT 19.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--MINNESOTA is 25-42 ATS (-21.2 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1992.
The average score was MINNESOTA 21.4, OPPONENT 25.9 - (Rating = 4*)
--MINNESOTA is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 13.0, OPPONENT 27.3 - (Rating = 4*)
--MINNESOTA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 11.8, OPPONENT 29.3 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
----------------------------------------------------
--PHILADELPHIA is 7-1 OVER (+5.9 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse this season.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 29.8, OPPONENT 24.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--MINNESOTA is 41-23 OVER (+15.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
The average score was MINNESOTA 21.3, OPPONENT 26.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--MINNESOTA is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) in road games vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 27 or more points/game in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was MINNESOTA 26.4, OPPONENT 33.5 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--PHILADELPHIA is 50-28 against the 1rst half line (+19.2 Units) in December games since 1992.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 12.3, OPPONENT 9.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--PHILADELPHIA is 42-21 against the 1rst half line (+18.9 Units) after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game since 1992.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 11.2, OPPONENT 8.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--PHILADELPHIA is 52-32 against the 1rst half line (+16.8 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return since 1992.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 11.4, OPPONENT 9.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--MINNESOTA is 0-7 against the 1rst half line (-7.7 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 7.3, OPPONENT 11.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--MINNESOTA is 0-6 against the 1rst half line (-6.6 Units) in road games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 6.2, OPPONENT 13.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--MINNESOTA is 0-6 against the 1rst half line (-6.6 Units) after scoring 14 points or less last game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 5.2, OPPONENT 12.3 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
------------------------------------------------------------------
--PHILADELPHIA is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total in home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 17.7, OPPONENT 9.1 - (Rating = 4*)
--PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) the 1rst half total in a home game where the first half total is between 19.5 and 21 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 19.9, OPPONENT 6.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--MINNESOTA is 45-24 OVER (+18.4 Units) the 1rst half total in a road game where the first half total is between 18 and 21 since 1992.
The average score was MINNESOTA 10.7, OPPONENT 12.4 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY OVER - Any team against the total (PHILADELPHIA) - after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after 2 straight losses by 10 or more points.
(31-9 over the last 10 seasons.) (77.5%, +21.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 43.3
The average score in these games was: Team 25.7, Opponent 25.1 (Total points scored = 50.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 22 (55% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-5).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (14-5).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (56-40).
--PLAY OVER - Any team vs the 1rst half total (PHILADELPHIA) - after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(39-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.5%, +25.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 21.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 12.5, Opponent 12.6 (Total first half points scored = 25.1)
The situation's record this season is: (6-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-7).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (65-62).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (128-123).
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Experience is what this business is all about, and good money can be made if one has the right connections. Stan 'The Man' prides himself on uncovering the edge that gives his customers the ability to beat the sports books on a consistent basis. Stan is a full time Expert Handicapper that can help you consistently beat the books. With any package that you purchase it is fully guaranteed that you show a profit, or he'll extend your service at no charge. If you have any questions about our services call 1-800 -351-4640, “You’ll be real glad you did!” -Stan
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*** CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL ***
NC STATE (8-4) VS. W VIRGINIA (9-3)
Citrus Bowl Stadium - Orlando, FL
Kickoff: 6:30 p.m. EDT Line: W Virginia -2.5 O/U 48.5
---------------------------------------------------------------
The 2010 Champs Sports Bowl in Orlando will feature the West Virginia Mountaineers of the Big East facing off against the NC State Wolfpack out of the ACC. The Mountaineers earned a share of the Big East title this season, but lost out on the tie breaker with UConn. Instead of representing the league in a BCS Bowl game, WVU finds itself in the Champs Sports Bowl for the first time. "We are thrilled and excited to be a participant and we are very much looking forward to this opportunity," said West Virginia coach Bill Stewart.
WVU, which won its last four games of the regular season, is making its school-record ninth straight bowl appearance. The Mountaineers own a 13-16 all-time mark in bowl games and had won four consecutive before losing to Florida State in the Gator Bowl last season. As for NC State, it suffered a 38-31 loss to Maryland in its regular-season finale that cost the team the Atlantic Division title and a spot in the ACC Championship game. It was certainly a disappointing and costly defeat, but the Wolfpack are still headed to a bowl game for the second time in four years under head coach Tom O'Brien.
"Our team could not be more excited about the opportunity to play in the Champs Sports Bowl," O'Brien said. "A trip to Orlando is a great reward for their hard work this season and we are happy to have a quality opponent like West Virginia. We hope that our fans will paint the town red." This is the 25th bowl appearance for NC State, which owns a 12-11-1 mark in such games. The program's last postseason appearance came in 2008, a 29-23 loss to Rutgers.
The Mountaineers and Wolfpack have met nine times previously on the gridiron, including twice in the postseason, and WVU holds a 5-4 edge in the series. The programs met twice in the Peach Bowl in Atlanta, with NC State posting a 49-13 win in 1972 and WVU capturing a 13-10 decision in 1975. WVU's offense came alive down the stretch, scoring 35 or more points in three of its final four games and cracking 500 total yards for the first time in a finale win over Rutgers. Turnovers however, have been an issue for the Mountaineers, as they have committed 23, including 16 lost fumbles.
Running the offense for WVU is sophomore Geno Smith, who really grew as the season wore on. Smith, in his first season as a starter, completed 65.8 percent of his pass attempts with 23 TDs against just six INTs. Jock Sanders served as Smith's safety outlet with a team-high 64 catches, while Tavon Austin provided a deep threat with 757 receiving yards and eight TDs. The Mountaineers also have a threat in the backfield with Noel Devine, though his season was slowed by ankle and foot issues. The speedy back totaled just 884 yards after entering the season as a possible Heisman Trophy candidate. With plenty of time to rest for this game, expect Devine to be ready to make an impact.
Defensively, the Mountaineers have been outstanding for the most part this season and they rank second in both run (85.1 ypg) and scoring (12.8 ppg) defense. The pass defense has also been strong for WVU, allowing just 166.2 ypg to rank 11th in the country. WVU never gave up over 21 points and the 15 TDs it surrendered were the fewest in the entire nation. The unit even had success creating big plays, recording 22 takeaways and 40 sacks. Bruce Irvin leads the team in sacks with 12, while Julian Miller adds eight to go with a team-high 13 TFLs. Keith Tandy is another player to keep a look out for, as the ball-hawk leads the team with six INTs.
The Wolfpack's offense revolves around Russell Wilson, who is one of the most talented QBs around with a strong arm and mobility. Wilson has thrown for 3,288 yards and 26 TDs, while adding 394 more yards and nine scores on the ground. He, however, does lack some accuracy, completing 58.1 percent of his pass attempts with 14 INTs along the way. Owen Spencer is Wilson's favorite target in the passing game, as he leads the roster with 57 catches and 868 receiving yards. Jarvin Williams is another option and he ranks second behind 46 receptions for 636 yards. The ground game is churning out a modest 125.0 ypg even with the help of Wilson. Mustafa Greene is the team's leading rusher, but he has amassed only 584 yards on the season. So expect the passing game to take center stage as always for this unit.
NC State has been strong against the run this season, as the unit is permitting just 113.0 ypg on the ground. The unit has done a terrific job stopping plays in the backfield, averaging nearly eight TFLs per game. The strong play up front has also helped NC State record 40 sacks, though the pass defense has still struggled some despite the heavy pressure. The Wolfpack are giving up 227.5 ypg through the air with 20 TDs against only eight INTs. Nate Irving, who missed all of 2009 after sustaining injuries in a car accident, has been outstanding for NC State this season and ranks in the top five nationally with 20.5 TFLs. He also leads the team with six sacks, while ranking second with 88 tackles.
"One of the most rewarding things I've experienced as a coach has been seeing Nate Irving come back so strong and enjoy so much success," said O'Brien. "He has been a tremendous leader for our team this year with his play on the field and his attitude off the field and is one of the reasons the 2010 team will always be a special one for me."
• PREGAME NOTES
-------------------------
The Mountaineers and their 9-3 SU and 7-3-1 ATS record may warrant favorite status tonight in Orlando but the way we see it, the linesmakers are playing with fire. Not only is HC Bill Stewart an unreliable 11-17-1 ATS when laying points but the West Virginians are a money-burning 0-6 ATS as bowl favorites since 1980. To make matters worse, they’re now laying points to a Wolf Pack squad that came within a 4th-quarter collapse (Virginia Tech) of posting a perfect 6-0 ATS mark this season when taking points.
The ‘conference’ matchup also favors the Pack as ACC bowlers are 14-4 ATS versus Big East opposition while the Mountaineers are just 12-30 ATS versus ACC foes. And when we bring the coaches into play, this one gets completely out of hand. NC State’s Tom O’Brien has excelled in bowl games, posting a 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS record. The veteran head coach is also a determined 15-5 ATS off a SU loss when taking on an opponent off back-to-back SU wins. Certainly, the same could not be said for Coach Stewart, who is being forced out of Morgantown after the 2011 season.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - W Virginia by 2; O/U 45.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - W Virginia -3
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - W Virginia -2.01
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--W VIRGINIA is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival since 1992.
The average score was W VIRGINIA 31.4, OPPONENT 17.0 - (Rating = 2*)
--NC STATE is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NC STATE 27.7, OPPONENT 26.0 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
----------------------------------------------------
--W VIRGINIA is 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) after playing a game at home this season.
The average score was W VIRGINIA 17.0, OPPONENT 15.3 - (Rating = 2*)
--NC STATE is 10-2 UNDER (+7.8 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=310 yards/game since 1992.
The average score was NC STATE 20.9, OPPONENT 29.8 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--NC STATE is 19-34 against the 1rst half line (-18.4 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
The average score was NC STATE 11.5, OPPONENT 12.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--NC STATE is 16-31 against the 1rst half line (-18.1 Units) when the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 since 1992.
The average score was NC STATE 12.4, OPPONENT 14.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--NC STATE is 11-25 against the 1rst half line (-16.5 Units) vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better since 1992.
The average score was NC STATE 12.5, OPPONENT 17.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--NC STATE is 1-9 against the 1rst half line (-8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NC STATE 12.3, OPPONENT 19.5 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
------------------------------------------------------------------
--W VIRGINIA is 16-6 UNDER (+9.4 Units) the 1rst half total in road games after a win by 21 or more points since 1992.
The average score was W VIRGINIA 14.3, OPPONENT 11.1 - (Rating = 2*)
--W VIRGINIA is 16-6 UNDER (+9.4 Units) the 1rst half total after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992.
The average score was W VIRGINIA 13.4, OPPONENT 9.0 - (Rating = 2*)
--W VIRGINIA is 13-4 UNDER (+8.6 Units) the 1rst half total in road games after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games since 1992.
The average score was W VIRGINIA 12.2, OPPONENT 9.4 - (Rating = 2*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the first half total is 21.5 to 24.5 (NC STATE) - off an upset loss as a favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%).
(43-11 over the last 10 seasons.) (79.6%, +30.9 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 23.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 9.3, Opponent 10 (Total first half points scored = 19.4)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (24-5).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (53-19).
--PLAY UNDER - Neutral field teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (W VIRGINIA) - average rushing team (140-190 RY/G) against a good rushing defense (100-140 RY/G) after 7+ games.
(26-7 over the last 10 seasons.) (78.8%, +18.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 46.1
The average score in these games was: Team 19.1, Opponent 21.8 (Total points scored = 40.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 17 (51.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-4).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (41-21).
--PLAY AGAINST - Any team where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (NC STATE) - in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences, after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more.
(47-14 since 1992.) (77.0%, +31.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 16, Opponent 11.1 (Average first half point differential = +4.9)
The situation's record this season is: (5-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (22-6).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (28-9).
--PLAY AGAINST - Any team (NC STATE) - good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG) against an excellent defense (<=280 YPG) after 7+ games.
(49-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.1%, +29.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (53-18 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 5.5
The average score in these games was: Team 29.5, Opponent 20.1 (Average point differential = +9.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 24 (34.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (6-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (29-10).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (77-46).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (127-107).
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Stan Knows Football and Basketball! Check out the huge winning run “The Man is enjoying and prepare to get all of his football and basketball selections with a discounted monthly or seasonal package.” Do it now and Save Big! - Call me toll-free in the office @ 1-800-351-4640 - You'll be real glad you did" -Stan!
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*** INSIGHT BOWL ***
MISSOURI (10-2) VS. IOWA (7-5)
Sun Devil Stadium - Tempe, AZ
Kickoff: 10:00 p.m. EDT Line: Missouri -3 O/U 46.5
------------------------------------------------------------
The Missouri Tigers and Iowa Hawkeyes got toe-to-toe in the 2010 Insight Bowl at Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe. Aside from back-to-back losses, the Tigers have been perfect, winning 10 games and earning a share of the Big 12 North Division title for the third time in the last four seasons. With the successful run during the regular-season, Missouri earned itself a school-record sixth straight bowl game. "We're very pleased to accept the invitation to play in the 2010 Insight Bowl," said MU Head Coach Gary Pinkel. "This is going to be a great reward for our team, and for our fans."
Overall this is the Tigers' 28th all-time bowl appearance and the program is 12-15 in such games, including three straight wins. Missouri has made one other appearance in the Insight Bowl, defeating West Virginia 34-31 in 1998. Iowa meanwhile, was ranked in the Top 10 this year, but now finds itself unranked heading into the bowl season. The Hawkeyes ended the regular season with three consecutive losses, all by four points or less, costing the program a chance at the Big Ten title. Still, Iowa did enough to earn a place in a bowl game for a third straight season and 25th time overall. The Hawkeyes own a 13-10-1 all-time record in the postseason, including a 24-14 win over Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl last season.
Missouri possesses a solid offense that is averaging 30.3 ppg and 401.1 total ypg. The Tigers are balanced as well, rushing for 162.9 ypg and throwing for 238.2 ypg more, with 26 scores coming on the ground and 16 through the air. QB Blaine Gabbert makes this offense go and he has completed 62.2 percent of his pass attempts for 2,752 yards, with 15 TDs against seven INTs. He can also get the job done with his legs, rushing for 239 yards and four scores. At Gabbert's disposal is a pair of talented outlets in TE Michael Egnew and WR T.J. Moe. Egnew leads the team in catches (83) to go with 698 yards and four scores, while Moe has 77 receptions for 893 yard sand six TDs. In the backfield, the Tigers don't have a single rusher that has topped 500 yards yet, though the team is averaging a solid 4.8 yards per carry.
Defensively, the Tigers turned in some dominant performances this season, holding five separate opponents under 10 points, including two shutouts. Overall, Missouri is allowing just 15.2 ppg, so this unit obviously does a terrific job keeping foes out of the end zone. While the Tigers have been tough on defense, they have given up some yards, surrendering 350.7 total ypg. The unit though, has compensated by forcing 27 turnovers, including 16 INTs, and recording 38 sacks. Brad Madison has started just two games for the Tigers, but that hasn't stopped him from leading the team with 11.0 TFLs and 7.5 sacks. Aldon Smith has also been effective despite missing three games, as he posted 44 tackles, nine TFLs and 5.5 sacks.
Iowa's strength on offense comes from its ability to protect the ball, committing a total of just nine turnovers. It all starts with QB Ricky Stanzi, who has thrown a total of just four INTs in 324 attempts. A winner through his career, Stanzi has enjoyed a highly successful campaign, completing 64.8 percent of his tosses for 2,804 yards and 25 TDs. "I think he's had a great year," Kirk Ferentz said. "He's had a great career. Rick is a tremendous individual that works very hard. His statistics are impressive because he's played pretty impressively."
Stanzi however, won't have the services of Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, who has been suspended following a drug-related arrest. Johnson-Koulianos had 745 receiving yards and a team-high 10 TDs during the regular season, so he will obviously be missed. Marvin McNutt though, will be available and he leads the team in catches (51) and receiving yards (798), to go with eight scores. The Hawkeyes issued another suspension to a key player for this game in Adam Robinson, who led the team with 941 yards and 10 TDs on the ground in 10 games. True freshman Marcus Coker made three starts and ran for 403 yards during the regular season and he will get the chance to showcase his talent on a big stage with Robinson out of the way.
"You can expect him to run the ball physically and run it tough, which he likes to do," offensive coordinator Ken O'Keefe said about Coker. "This is an opponent that's going to offer some different challenges to him and one of them is going to be in the blitz pickup game. We really like the progress Marcus has made." On the defensive side of the ball, Iowa has excelled this season, holding opponents to only 164. ppg and 317.1 total ypg. The unit has been stout versus the run, yielding just 103.5 ypg and only 3.3 yards per carry. Iowa has also had success coming up with takeaways, registering 23 on the year. A majority of the turnovers have come via picks, as the Hawkeyes have notched 17 INTs compared to 11 passing TDs allowed. Shaun Prater and Brett Greenwood are tied for the team-lead in INTs with four, while Micah Hyde follows with three picks.
• PREGAME NOTES
-------------------------
QB Ricky Stanzi had been 18-4 SU as a starter with the Hawkeyes entering 2010, only to go 7-5 in his final season at Iowa City. Meanwhile, coming off an 8-5 mark last year, Missouri wasn’t expected to make major noise in the Big 12 but Gary Pinkel’s Tigers opened the season 7-0 before closing out with a 10-2 finish. But here’s where we break with tradition, preferring to think of Iowa’s travails resulting from bad luck instead of bad play. This year’s lined opponents finished with a W-L record of 80-42, the most difficult of all bowlers, and the Hawkeyes’ last 11 losses over the previous three seasons have come by just 39 points combined, with no defeat by more than seven points.
Yes, Mizzou’s senior class may graduate as the winningest in school history but the Tigers still laid a massive egg in last year’s Texas Bowl, losing 35-13 as 6.5-point favorites against Navy. Rival coach Kirk Ferentz owns a 15-7 ATS mark as a dog or favorite of less than 10 points off consecutive losses while Pinkel has gone 0-3 ATS versus .500 or better Big Ten opponents. Even more encouraging for Hawkeye backers, Iowa is 8-1 ATS off three SU losses an own a 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS record as bowl dogs, and Big 10 bowlers are 7-1 ATS taking on Big 12 adversaries off a double-digit win. On the down side, Big 12 bowlers are an abysmal 0-7 ATS as favorites off a win of 8 or more points and 4-12 ATS versus bowlers over the last three years.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Missouri by 3; O/U 41.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Missouri -1
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Missouri -2.22
_____________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--IOWA is 30-11 ATS (+17.9 Units) versus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.75 rushing yards/carry since 1992.
The average score was IOWA 29.9, OPPONENT 22.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--IOWA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was IOWA 25.8, OPPONENT 14.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--IOWA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was IOWA 23.3, OPPONENT 17.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--MISSOURI is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.9 yards/play over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MISSOURI 29.3, OPPONENT 33.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--MISSOURI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MISSOURI 25.3, OPPONENT 34.4 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
----------------------------------------------------
--IOWA is 41-22 UNDER (+16.8 Units) when the total is between 42.5 and 49 since 1992.
The average score was IOWA 21.9, OPPONENT 19.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--IOWA is 31-13 UNDER (+16.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
The average score was IOWA 19.6, OPPONENT 23.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--IOWA is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was IOWA 23.1, OPPONENT 15.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--MISSOURI is 18-3 UNDER (+14.7 Units) after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better since 1992.
The average score was MISSOURI 25.2, OPPONENT 24.4 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--IOWA is 8-0 against the 1rst half line (+8.0 Units) vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was IOWA 14.4, OPPONENT 7.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--IOWA is 7-0 against the 1rst half line (+7.0 Units) as a neutral field underdog of 3.5 points or less since 1992.
The average score was IOWA 15.1, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--MISSOURI is 62-39 against the 1rst half line (+19.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
The average score was MISSOURI 13.1, OPPONENT 14.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--MISSOURI is 37-18 against the 1rst half line (+16.9 Units) versus good rushing defenses - allowing <=120 rushing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was MISSOURI 11.5, OPPONENT 14.5 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
------------------------------------------------------------------
--IOWA is 39-20 UNDER (+17.0 Units) the 1rst half total as an underdog vs. the 1rst half line since 1992.
The average score was IOWA 8.3, OPPONENT 14.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--IOWA is 10-0 UNDER (+10.0 Units) the 1rst half total in road games off an upset loss as a favorite since 1992.
The average score was IOWA 7.7, OPPONENT 11.2 - (Rating = 4*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATION
---------------------------------------------
--PLAY UNDER - Neutral field teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (MISSOURI) - average rushing team (140-190 RY/G) against a good rushing defense (100-140 RY/G) after 7+ games.
(26-7 over the last 10 seasons.) (78.8%, +18.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 46.1
The average score in these games was: Team 19.1, Opponent 21.8 (Total points scored = 40.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 17 (51.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-4).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (41-21).
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Stan 'The Man has Turned-Up the Heat on the Gridiron with his RED~HOT 69-25-4, (73.4%) ATS Run, along with his impressive 132-56-2 (70.2%) mark for the season, in MLB action! But most Importantly, Yours Truly has delivered the cash in Forty-Two of the last Forty-Six, and in Seventy-Six of the last Eighty-One Weeks, Dating back to Last Season!
After taking most of the week off, “The Man Continued to Roll with his 'ROCK~SOLID' Record (40-13-2, 75.5%) in CFB Action on Friday, dishing out yet another Huge Top *5-Star Winner (Tulsa +10.5) that was back by this ‘Incredible Super Situational System' - PLAY ON: A Conference Championship/Bowl team (not a favorite of 4+ points or underdog of more than 14 points) off allowing 22+ points in each of its last 5 games vs. a non-Independent opponent.
This Stat/Systems Sports Super Situational System has a record of 17-0 ATS, 100% (with the Tulsa Golden Hurricane forcing six turnovers to upend #24 Hawaii, 62-35, in the Hawaii Bowl) covering the spread by an average of 27.4 points per game since 1999. The straight up record for this system is a solid 14-3 winning by an average of 17.3 points per game.
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